Monday, February 15, 2016

Looking back

Well the first days of the year, didn't start as I hoped they would be.
For the moment I'm standing on a loss of 41,79 euros. I did play 144 bets and won only 27,8% of them.

If I categorize this into sports, then I only have green figures with Darts and the NFL.
Biggest loosing sport was Football, 95 bets played, only 30 won and a loss of 29,23 euros.
If I look at the ROI than Basketball was my biggest loss with a negative ROI of 70,4%.
For the moment I should also stay away from the PGA, cause this didn't produce any winners.

When filling up my betting history of 2015 I did notice that my biggest losses were situated in the odds between 1,1 and 1,4. I trying to fix this leak, but still loosing there.
I should try to play more the odds between 1,5 and 2, cause that were I writing green figures.

If I look at the betting types I play, I play first of all way to many, 26 different ones. And almost all are red.

I must admit that I did invest most of my time, in building a football database which should help me in selecting my bets and also should give an idea of the EV of a bet.


Wednesday, January 27, 2016

This time it is serious!!!

I have been placing bets for several years on sport events. Sadly but true I must admit that I'm on the loosing site and I do feel that it is time to take it serious and to reclaim my lost money.
This blog is my story about my attempt to reclaim my losses.

Lets say that I'm on the sports betting field for 10 years. Loosing on average 75 per year. Could be a little bit more or less. So this sets my target. My challenge will be completed when the profit I did made from now on will be above €750.

I will not set a deadline in time, but because you should have target in which this should be achieved. I'm targeting a ROI of around 5%. This would mean that I probably have to wager around €15000. This is a lot for a small stakes sports punter with a limited bankroll. If I’m not in the green figures after wagering €15000 I will quit with sports betting!
My journey did start at the beginning of this year with a bankroll of €110. Divided over 2 bookmakers. Probably I will place a bankroll on in total 4 bookies. Which means that I will invest a little bit more money. Actual bankroll is around €80. Which indicates how though the challenge will be. Imagine placing €15000 of wagers with this small bankroll. I have to be spot on for the start!

In Belgium where I live, online sports betting is legal and some way controlled by the government. There is a list of approved and legal online bookies. Going from big international players to small local bookies.
I already listed them all with the allowed methods for funding the bankroll. Don't know yet the withdrawal methods, which I do consider important because I want to work with an e-wallet.

I do promise complete transparency. I will report my losses and my profit. If I do find old leaks, you will know, if I do make new mistakes you will know. If I do find a successful betting scheme, you will also know! Besides articles I will be trying to write and post, I will give an update twice a month. At the end of the month and in the middle of the month.

What will make it different this time?
Well several of things.
Firstly I did start reading books on sports betting. I did start with "The smart money". While this book doesn't tell you how to make a profit, it does point out some interesting things. At the moment I'm reading Conquering risk: Attacking Vegas and wall street.

Secondly I'm recording all my bets made from 2015 in a betting sheet. This way I hope to find my biggest leaks so that I can eliminate them. But this is time consuming and a hell of a job. But it has to be done.

Further more I will invest more time in this journey. Due to the fact that I'm a dedicated father and husband, have a 40 hour work week and also like life outside the sports betting area, time is sparse and has to be used correctly. Untill my active tennis and golf season starts I’m hoping to invest around 10 hours per week!

I will also try to set up some database on the biggest football leagues, hoping that this will be giving myself an edge. I know this can be found on the net somewhere but it doesn’t fit my purposes. I’m a strong believer than in the football markets, the both teams to score and the over 2.5 goals bets will be more profitable than the regular 1X2 bets. But only stats and time will tell.

So on this blog you can read how I will try to turn things around. If I fail you can read it here, but also if and how I did succeed!

But I will allow myself 1 betting scheme as a favor. It's the Dremeber’s 1K challenge. In this scheme I will give myself 10 chances turning a minimal (e)2 into 1K. It's a rolling bet in which I will invest the previous bet combined with the profit, decreased with some banking. I will explain this in another post. I have to fine tune the banking calculations.